{"id":2496,"date":"2026-08-13T09:08:40","date_gmt":"2026-08-13T09:08:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=2496"},"modified":"2026-08-13T09:08:40","modified_gmt":"2026-08-13T09:08:40","slug":"trumps-claims-about-combating-crime-are-based-on-skewed-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=2496","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s Claims About Combating Crime Are Based on Skewed Data"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>The White House misrepresented and exaggerated a recent crime report to overstate the impact of last summer\u2019s federal intervention in four cities, according to a NOTUS review.<\/p><p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=2490\">Rep. Max Miller\u2019s Ex-Wife Sues Him Over Photo He Shared of Their Daughter<\/a><\/p><p>On July 23, the Council on Criminal Justice, a nonpartisan criminal justice policy organization, released <span><u>a report on crime<\/u><\/span> in several cities. Days later, the White House cited the report in a news release <span><u>touting<\/u><\/span> President Donald Trump\u2019s record on public safety. In the release, the White House claimed that the greatest turnaround was seen in four cities where Trump sent federal agency officials and National Guard troops \u2014 a claim the data didn\u2019t support. And two of the four cities the White House mentioned \u2014 Memphis and New Orleans \u2014 weren\u2019t even included in the CCJ report cited in the White House\u2019s release.<\/p>\n<p>The White House claimed that, \u201cThe steepest homicide drops have come in cities where the Trump Administration stepped in after Democrat leaders failed to act,\u201d specifically listing Memphis, New Orleans, Los Angeles and Washington, D.C. But the steepest homicide drops weren\u2019t in those four cities, according to Ernesto Lopez, the CCJ senior researcher who co-wrote the report.<\/p><p>Lincoln, Nebraska, had the steepest drop. Washington, D.C., had the sixth steepest, Los Angeles the 17th, and Memphis and New Orleans weren\u2019t included in the report.<\/p>\n<section>\n<div>\n<h2>\n<span>Trending<\/span>\n<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-medium_large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Warsh Senate 7\/15\/26\" class=\"wp-image-2482\" height=\"512\" src=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/18cb330df8a73ee2957901ed79abbbca-768x512.jpg\" width=\"768\" srcset=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/18cb330df8a73ee2957901ed79abbbca-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/18cb330df8a73ee2957901ed79abbbca-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/18cb330df8a73ee2957901ed79abbbca.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><h3>\n<span>\n                      Republicans Love Working With Elizabeth Warren\n                    <\/span>\n<\/h3><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-medium_large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"034087E9-40F6-4854-A47A-19AB38F1B566_1_201_a-2 copy.jpg\" class=\"wp-image-2443\" height=\"432\" src=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/9884e4e9d963b6b9836c6ff7aca8c4ab-768x432.jpg\" width=\"768\" srcset=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/9884e4e9d963b6b9836c6ff7aca8c4ab-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/9884e4e9d963b6b9836c6ff7aca8c4ab-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/9884e4e9d963b6b9836c6ff7aca8c4ab.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><h3>\n<span>\n                      No ID, No Money, No Way Out: DHS Deports a Man to a Country He Doesn\u2019t Know\n                    <\/span>\n<\/h3><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-medium_large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"MillerWilesLeavitt\" class=\"wp-image-2494\" height=\"543\" src=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/17b0972b74f4fdfefa1ec132567a02f3-768x543.jpg\" width=\"768\" srcset=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/17b0972b74f4fdfefa1ec132567a02f3-768x543.jpg 768w, https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/17b0972b74f4fdfefa1ec132567a02f3-300x212.jpg 300w, https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/17b0972b74f4fdfefa1ec132567a02f3.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><h3>\n<span>\n                      Meet the Highest-Paid White House Staffers\n                    <\/span>\n<\/h3><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-medium_large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Medicaid New York\" class=\"wp-image-2495\" height=\"512\" src=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/75428343b9b83ecf63646ca633c0d103-768x512.jpg\" width=\"768\" srcset=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/75428343b9b83ecf63646ca633c0d103-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/75428343b9b83ecf63646ca633c0d103-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/75428343b9b83ecf63646ca633c0d103.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><h3>\n<span>\n                      A Small Texas Law Firm Backs Out of HHS Contract After Backlash\n                    <\/span>\n<\/h3><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p>The report used data from 36 cities to display the short- and long-term shift in crime that began in the second half of 2022, Lopez said. The authors excluded Memphis due to statistical anomalies. Lopez could not recall if New Orleans had been included in previous iterations of the report.<\/p><p>Supporting data was included in the White House release for Memphis and New Orleans from a separate source, a <span><u>July<\/u><\/span> Substack article by crime data analyst Jeff Asher. Asher calculated that the Memphis homicide rate had fallen by 43.3% in 2026 from 2025, with New Orleans down 32.1%. (In his 2025 mid-year report, Memphis\u2019 and New Orleans\u2019 murder rates were down 15.1% and 27.4%, respectively, from 2024.) Fort Worth, Texas, had the steepest dropin Asher\u2019s 2026 report, with Memphis just behind and New Orleans in ninth.<\/p><p>On Monday, Asher called the White House\u2019s claim an \u201cincorrect statement.\u201d<\/p><p>\u201cI don\u2019t necessarily think it fully reflects what\u2019s in the piece that I\u2019ve written,\u201d Asher, the co-founder of AH Datalytics, told NOTUS.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cPresident Trump promised to make America safe again and the data proves he has done just that,\u201d Lauren Bis, a White House spokesperson, said in a statement on Tuesday. \u201cJust today, another survey by the Major Cities Chiefs Association found significant drops in violent crime including a more than 17% decrease in murders. Unlike Defund-the-Police Democrats, President Trump will always stand with our law enforcement officers and deliver safer American neighborhoods.\u201d<\/p><p>After sending the statement to NOTUS, the White House <span><u>published a news release<\/u><\/span> featuring the survey from the Major Cities Chiefs Association, displaying the cities with the largest drops in homicides. D.C. and Memphis were ninth and 10th for the largest drops, respectively, according to <span><u>an analysis<\/u><\/span> by Axios.<\/p><div>\n<\/div><p>The White House release used the CCJ report as a reference for most of the press release\u2019s takeaways before pivoting away from it to claim cities that Trump sent federal troops to had the greatest change in murder rate.<\/p><p>Homicides are on track to reach a historically low level in 2026, and officials in Memphis and New Orleans have shared credit with Trump. In January, New Orleans Police Superintendent Anne Kirkpatrick cited the National Guard\u2019s presence as a crime deterrent.<\/p><p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=2489\">Karoline Leavitt Is Leaving the White House<\/a><\/p><p>\u201cWe\u2019re just grateful that crime is down, and I don\u2019t care who gets the credit,\u201d Kirkpatrick <span><u>said<\/u><\/span> at the time.<\/p><p>The CCJ report didn\u2019t delve into potential causes for the downward trend. But both Asher and Andrew Wheeler, a crime data analyst who founded the website CRIME De-Coder, pointed to the broader decline that\u2019s been ongoing since former President Joe Biden\u2019s administration.<\/p>\n<p>After a spike that followed the COVID-19 pandemic and George Floyd protests, crime \u201chas been dropping down pretty consistently across the U.S.,\u201d Wheeler said.<\/p><p>\u201cIt isn\u2019t like something that just started like a few months ago or anything like that. It\u2019s been pretty consistent over several years at this point,\u201d he added.<\/p><p>Asher pointed to the Bourbon Street <span><u>terrorist attack<\/u><\/span> on New Year\u2019s Day in 2025 as an example of how some crime reductions couldn\u2019t be credited to Trump\u2019s actions. The number of people killed in the attack \u2014 14 \u2014 skewed the city\u2019s murder rate for the rest of the year, he said. If the attack wasn\u2019t included in the city\u2019s crime data, its 2025 and 2026 murder rates would be similar.<\/p><div>\n<\/div><p>The White House\u2019s release was published during a stretch when Trump\u2019s approval rating <span><u>has sunk <\/u><\/span>to 38% or lower in <span><u>multiple<\/u><\/span> <span><u>surveys<\/u><\/span>, as he deals with the ongoing Iran war that has spurred higher prices in the grocery store and at the gas pump. Given the improving crime rates, the White House has emphasized the issue. A <span><u>July Economist\/YouGov poll<\/u><\/span> found that Trump\u2019s approval on crime outpaced his overall approval rating, 41% to 36%. On Monday, the administration released <span><u>statistics<\/u><\/span> about crime improvements in D.C. <span><u>one year after<\/u><\/span> the institution of the Make D.C. Safe and Beautiful Again Task Force.<\/p><p>Mayor Muriel Bowser <span><u>said Monday<\/u><\/span> the continued presence of out-of-state National Guard troops in D.C. is \u201cproblematic.\u201d<\/p><p>Since Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, he has dedicated significant effort into the beautification of America\u2019s cities. The emphasis birthed the federal task force in Memphis and troops in Los Angeles, New Orleans and D.C., where his infatuation with aesthetics matured into <span><u>renovations<\/u><\/span>, freshly <span><u>gilded statues<\/u><\/span> and fixed park fountains.<\/p><p>Although the National Guard remains active in Memphis, New Orleans and D.C., Trump has turned his attention away from sending troops into Democratic-led cities \u2014 but the cities remain on his mind. During a speech last week in Las Vegas, Trump said, \u201cThe cities stink. They smell. The sidewalks are loaded with horrible stuff.\u201d<\/p><p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=2487\">Burke Law Firm Withdraws From HHS Contract Consideration After Backlash<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A Trump administration release lauding federal interventions last year made false claims about how much the cities improved.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2491,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2496","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-trump-white-house"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trump\u2019s Claims About Combating Crime Are Based on Skewed Data - Modern Home Journals<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=2496\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trump\u2019s Claims About Combating Crime Are Based on Skewed Data - 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