{"id":3011,"date":"2026-08-26T10:12:18","date_gmt":"2026-08-26T10:12:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=3011"},"modified":"2026-08-26T10:12:18","modified_gmt":"2026-08-26T10:12:18","slug":"political-operatives-warn-campaigns-dont-trust-prediction-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=3011","title":{"rendered":"Political Operatives Warn Campaigns: Don&#8217;t Trust Prediction Markets"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>The slow decline of traditional polling has left politicos, who are always desperate for numbers, in a lurch.<\/p><p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=3004\">How Corporate PAC Money Gets to Democrats Who Swore It Off<\/a><\/p><p>Two venture-backed prediction market companies are offering nothing short of magic to meet those needs: real-time odds on who will win elections, and even projections of how much they will win by. As these companies lean into aggressively gamifying \u2014 or rather, gamblifying \u2014 U.S. politics, political operatives are warning campaigns not to take them seriously.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe thing we have to remember is they\u2019re not in any way representative of the voters that decide elections,\u201d said Steve Schale, a Democratic strategist. \u201cIt is sort of like degenerate gambling for political hacks.\u201d<\/p><p>Schale likened polls to \u201cheroin\u201d for people in politics. Prediction market projections offer more numbers for that demographic to obsess over, but that doesn\u2019t make them helpful to campaigns, he argued.<\/p>\n<section>\n<div>\n<h2>\n<span>Trending<\/span>\n<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-medium_large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"US Department of the Treasury\" class=\"wp-image-2969\" height=\"512\" src=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/48ba3e51a27a513915112940936f59ad-768x512.jpg\" width=\"768\" srcset=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/48ba3e51a27a513915112940936f59ad-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/48ba3e51a27a513915112940936f59ad-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/48ba3e51a27a513915112940936f59ad.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><h3>\n<span>\n                      Billionaire\u2019s WSJ Op-Ed Criticizing Bessent Was Written With AI\n                    <\/span>\n<\/h3><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-medium_large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Commanders defense AP - 26234595062143\" class=\"wp-image-3008\" height=\"512\" src=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/e6f1d7d712026f53d9668ff15440bcb2-768x512.jpg\" width=\"768\" srcset=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/e6f1d7d712026f53d9668ff15440bcb2-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/e6f1d7d712026f53d9668ff15440bcb2-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/e6f1d7d712026f53d9668ff15440bcb2.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><h3>\n<span>\n                      How Denzel Washington Is Helping the Commanders Build Their Defense\n                    <\/span>\n<\/h3><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-medium_large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Election 2026 Michigan Senate\" class=\"wp-image-3009\" height=\"512\" src=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/c8ca82300d6d2ea0c735c8166844ccba-768x512.jpg\" width=\"768\" srcset=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/c8ca82300d6d2ea0c735c8166844ccba-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/c8ca82300d6d2ea0c735c8166844ccba-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/c8ca82300d6d2ea0c735c8166844ccba.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><h3>\n<span>\n                      Hasan Piker Roils Michigan Senate Race\n                    <\/span>\n<\/h3><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-medium_large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Election 2026 Georgia Governor\" class=\"wp-image-3010\" height=\"512\" src=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/ade49420618848bd6f702aa62c6662d8-768x512.jpg\" width=\"768\" srcset=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/ade49420618848bd6f702aa62c6662d8-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/ade49420618848bd6f702aa62c6662d8-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/ade49420618848bd6f702aa62c6662d8.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><h3>\n<span>\n                      Trump Wants Unity in Georgia. The Blood May Be Too Bad.\n                    <\/span>\n<\/h3><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p>Elections are big business for prediction markets. South Carolina\u2019s Senate Republican primary runoff between Sen. Darline Graham and Rep. Ralph Norman saw more than $25.7 million in trading activity on <span><u>Kalshi<\/u><\/span>. The platform projected Graham\u2019s odds at around 56% when polls closed, and she <span><u>won<\/u><\/span>.<\/p><p>Prediction markets, which claim to reflect the \u201c<span><u>wisdom of the crowd<\/u><\/span>,\u201d have missed the mark several times this primary season though: Last Tuesday, Kalshi\u2019s market <span><u>completely floundered<\/u><\/span> in Florida\u2019s Senate Democratic primary \u2014 it projected that insurgent democratic socialist state Rep. Angie Nixon had single-digit chances of winning. She <span><u>won by a lot<\/u><\/span>: The Associated Press called the race right as polls closed in the state.<\/p><p>In Wisconsin\u2019s Democratic gubernatorial primary on Aug. 11, David Crowley pulled off an <span><u>upset<\/u><\/span>, even though Kalshi <span><u>projected<\/u><\/span> for weeks a single-digit chance of him winning.<\/p><p>The day before Abdul El-Sayed so narrowly clinched his victory in the Senate Democratic primary in Michigan, Polymarket projected his chances of winning at <span><u>more than 98%<\/u><\/span> \u2014 and the market on his victory margins predicted it would be a blowout, with him winning by <span><u>at least 15%<\/u><\/span>. That mirrored <span><u>polls<\/u><\/span> ahead of the election, which showed El-Sayed with a double-digit lead over his opponent, Rep. Haley Stevens. He won by less than <span><u>1 percentage point<\/u><\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt seems to me now that they\u2019re much more reaction markets than prediction markets,\u201d said Eddie Vale, a Democratic political consultant who works with Crowley\u2019s campaign. \u201cThe theory was, if people had to put money or skin in the game, sort of the collective wisdom and knowledge was going to help predict things, but it\u2019s pretty clear that people are just betting in reaction to seeing the news, seeing a new poll.\u201d<\/p><p>\u201cAnybody that has experience on campaigns knows that they\u2019re useless,\u201d Vale said of prediction market odds.<\/p><p>Prediction market platforms are forcing their way onto social media feeds through partnerships, including with newsrooms like <span><u>CNN<\/u><\/span> and <span><u>Fox<\/u><\/span>, and political influencers like <span><u>Gunther Eagleman<\/u><\/span>, a conservative poster with 1.7 million followers. Kalshi and Polymarket, the two biggest prediction platforms where people can trade event contracts, futures and derivatives onreal-world events, are leaning into the political realm \u2014 both even have dedicated midterms betting hubs.<\/p><p>But the people who actually work around campaigns and politics have balked at some of the marketing.<\/p><p>Adam Carlson, a progressive pollster and prolific political poster, said he\u2019s been approached with offers for paid partnerships with prediction markets. He said that while he personally finds prediction market odds \u201cinteresting,\u201d he never checks on any candidate\u2019s odds of his \u201cown free will.\u201d<\/p><p>\u201cPolling can exist without prediction markets. Prediction markets cannot exist without polling,\u201d Carlson said. \u201cThere is some value to them directionally, but there are some very clear weaknesses \u2026 It\u2019s just more like a conversation starter if you\u2019re not involved in the campaign. Or, it\u2019s a discourse generator.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>One conservative strategist, Liz Mair, told NOTUS that she does see prediction markets changing politics because more people are being exposed to them \u2014 which can change how operatives think about running campaigns.<\/p><p>\u201cThe main change I\u2019m seeing is that a lot of people who should know better are treating the odds offered by prediction markets as a substitute for polling. That\u2019s a huge mistake,\u201d Mair said in an email to NOTUS. \u201cWhile there\u2019s a lot wrong with polling \u2026 there\u2019s zero reason why the opinions of a bunch of randos that skew prediction markets should be treated as remotely indicative of outcomes.\u201d<\/p><p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=3002\">Democrats Embrace \u2018Redboxing\u2019 Loophole in Hot Congressional Races<\/a><\/p><p>Sure, polling has its issues, as both pollsters and political operatives conceded in interviews for this story. But they still generally have transparent methodologies, and strive for representative samplings that provide campaign operatives with nuanced, actionable data about where they\u2019re falling short.<\/p><p>Only 14% of Americans report placing bets on prediction markets \u201csometimes\u201d or \u201cfrequently,\u201d according to a Navigator Research <span><u>survey<\/u><\/span> conducted in April. And those who do tend to be young men.<\/p><p>Prediction markets and polls also measure different things: Polls often ask people who they\u2019d vote for, whereas markets ask who people think will win. For people running campaigns, the markets are more of a vibe check than a prognosis.<\/p><p>\u201cA real poll is digging deep into their opinion on certain issues. That\u2019s what drives things: \u2018How do you feel about the economy? How do you feel about the price of gas? Should we be at war in Iran?\u2019 Yada, yada, yada \u2014 a good pollster can read through all those and pull a result out. Well, none of that is in Kalshi,\u201d Jacob Perry, a Democratic strategist, said.<\/p>\n<p>Elisabeth Diana, Kalshi\u2019s head of communications, said the platform is \u201cmore, actually, accurate than polling,\u201d and pointed NOTUS to a Washington Post <span><u>analysis<\/u><\/span> of 2,000 primary election markets that found that despite several high-profile misses, markets were generally accurate, meaning candidates given a 75% chance of winning won around 75% of the time. The company has also done its <span><u>own research<\/u><\/span> to argue that its markets are accurate.<\/p><p>\u201cWe see prediction market forecasts as an effective complement to polling \u2014 it\u2019s an additional data point that surfaces wisdom-of-the-crowd data, and it\u2019s historically very well-calibrated,\u201d Diana said in a statement.<\/p><p>The company has paid people to post about the betting platform on X, marketing it as something that could replace polls entirely, in an apparent effort to capitalize on people\u2019s frustrations with traditional polling.<\/p><p>\u201cKalshi just released its new Midterms Hub, and it may be the final nail in the coffin for traditional polling,\u201d Overton News, a news aggregator and Kalshi partner, <span><u>posted<\/u><\/span> on X. \u201cThe same pollsters who were embarrassingly WRONG about the 2024 election.\u201d<\/p><p>While operatives and strategists warn against making campaign decisions based on the platforms\u2019 projections, some said it can be used to fundraise, since it can make donors feel better about a candidate\u2019s viability. The Democratic Senate candidate in Alaska, Mary Peltola, used her Kalshi odds to argue that her campaign has \u201ca 57% chance to beat the DC establishment and take back Alaska\u201d in a <span><u>post<\/u><\/span> on X earlier this month. The Senate Majority PAC, a super PAC aligned with Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, boasted in an <span><u>email<\/u><\/span> fundraising bid last month about Kalshi\u2019s projections showing that Democrats have a chance of taking back the Senate.<\/p><p>\u201cBecause they update hourly, well, literally, minute by minute, they\u2019re a very attractive, shiny object to rely on. But we don\u2019t have decades of experience with how accurate they are, in the same way that we have many decades of experience with polling, both for good and bad,\u201d said Charles Franklin, the director of Marquette Law School Poll. \u201cIt\u2019s a wildly unrepresentative sample of the public.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Given that prediction market bettors are largely on the younger side, could operatives\u2019 dismissal of their worth speak to a generational gap? Mandy Zhang, a Gen Z Democratic digital strategist, said that while her friends use prediction markets for fun, nobody treats them like they\u2019re prophetic.<\/p><p>\u201cDigital teams do pay attention to where their candidates are sitting on these platforms, mostly as a quick pulse check or another data point. But I don\u2019t think anyone I\u2019ve worked with treats them as the \u2018holy grail\u2019 of political forecasting. They\u2019re something people look at and talk about, but not something campaigns are necessarily building their strategy around,\u201d Zhang said in a message to NOTUS. \u201cWorking across different campaigns this year, I\u2019ve seen firsthand that they can be pretty wrong.\u201d<\/p><p>Matthew Bartlett, a Republican strategist, said that if he were advising a campaign this year, he would tell them: \u201cMy short advice? Stay away.\u201d<\/p><p>\u201cYou have so many people, just like sports betting is almost as big as sports, the betting markets are almost as big as politics themselves, and when you\u2019re talking about real, human events such as sports or elections, they\u2019re prone to disruption,\u201d he said. \u201cWin by the polls, die by the prediction markets.\u201d<\/p><p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=3001\">Hasan Piker Roils Michigan Senate Race<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Prediction market companies are trying to get their foot in the door as traditional polling falters.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":911,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3011","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-2026-election"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Political Operatives Warn Campaigns: Don&#039;t Trust Prediction Markets - Modern Home Journals<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=3011\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Political Operatives Warn Campaigns: Don&#039;t Trust Prediction Markets - Modern Home Journals\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Prediction market companies are trying to get their foot in the door as traditional polling falters.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=3011\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Modern Home Journals\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-08-26T10:12:18+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/48ba3e51a27a513915112940936f59ad.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"683\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"8 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/?p=3011#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/?p=3011\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/533de239efc09a2ab59959cc1bff86d0\"},\"headline\":\"Political Operatives Warn Campaigns: Don&#8217;t Trust Prediction Markets\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-08-26T10:12:18+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/?p=3011\"},\"wordCount\":1546,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/?p=3011#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/07\\\/3a92f4f967d82eb77c2e5fc54e04eebd-scaled.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"2026 Election\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/?p=3011#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/?p=3011\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/?p=3011\",\"name\":\"Political Operatives Warn Campaigns: Don't Trust Prediction Markets - Modern Home Journals\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/?p=3011#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/?p=3011#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/07\\\/3a92f4f967d82eb77c2e5fc54e04eebd-scaled.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-08-26T10:12:18+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/533de239efc09a2ab59959cc1bff86d0\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/?p=3011#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/?p=3011\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/?p=3011#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/07\\\/3a92f4f967d82eb77c2e5fc54e04eebd-scaled.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/07\\\/3a92f4f967d82eb77c2e5fc54e04eebd-scaled.jpg\",\"width\":2560,\"height\":1707,\"caption\":\"FILE - An ad for the prediction market app Kalshi is displayed on a mobile phone on April 16, 2026, in Chicago. (AP Photo\\\/Erin Hooley, File)\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/?p=3011#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Political Operatives Warn Campaigns: Don&#8217;t Trust Prediction Markets\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"Modern Home Journals\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/533de239efc09a2ab59959cc1bff86d0\",\"name\":\"admin\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"admin\"},\"sameAs\":[\"http:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/?author=1\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Political Operatives Warn Campaigns: Don't Trust Prediction Markets - Modern Home Journals","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=3011","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Political Operatives Warn Campaigns: Don't Trust Prediction Markets - Modern Home Journals","og_description":"Prediction market companies are trying to get their foot in the door as traditional polling falters.","og_url":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=3011","og_site_name":"Modern Home Journals","article_published_time":"2026-08-26T10:12:18+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1024,"height":683,"url":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/48ba3e51a27a513915112940936f59ad.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"admin","Est. reading time":"8 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=3011#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=3011"},"author":{"name":"admin","@id":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/#\/schema\/person\/533de239efc09a2ab59959cc1bff86d0"},"headline":"Political Operatives Warn Campaigns: Don&#8217;t Trust Prediction Markets","datePublished":"2026-08-26T10:12:18+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=3011"},"wordCount":1546,"commentCount":0,"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=3011#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/3a92f4f967d82eb77c2e5fc54e04eebd-scaled.jpg","articleSection":["2026 Election"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=3011#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=3011","url":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=3011","name":"Political Operatives Warn Campaigns: Don't Trust Prediction Markets - Modern Home Journals","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=3011#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=3011#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/3a92f4f967d82eb77c2e5fc54e04eebd-scaled.jpg","datePublished":"2026-08-26T10:12:18+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/#\/schema\/person\/533de239efc09a2ab59959cc1bff86d0"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=3011#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=3011"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=3011#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/3a92f4f967d82eb77c2e5fc54e04eebd-scaled.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/3a92f4f967d82eb77c2e5fc54e04eebd-scaled.jpg","width":2560,"height":1707,"caption":"FILE - An ad for the prediction market app Kalshi is displayed on a mobile phone on April 16, 2026, in Chicago. (AP Photo\/Erin Hooley, File)"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=3011#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Political Operatives Warn Campaigns: Don&#8217;t Trust Prediction Markets"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/","name":"Modern Home Journals","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/#\/schema\/person\/533de239efc09a2ab59959cc1bff86d0","name":"admin","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"admin"},"sameAs":["http:\/\/modernhomejournals.com"],"url":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?author=1"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3011","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3011"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3011\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/911"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3011"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3011"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3011"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}