{"id":3112,"date":"2026-08-28T09:09:45","date_gmt":"2026-08-28T09:09:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=3112"},"modified":"2026-08-28T09:09:45","modified_gmt":"2026-08-28T09:09:45","slug":"gas-prices-are-high-trumps-supporters-are-feeling-the-most-pain","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=3112","title":{"rendered":"Gas Prices Are High. Trump\u2019s Supporters Are Feeling The Most Pain."},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Gas at the pump costs <span><u>40% more<\/u><\/span> than it did before the Iran war began in February, according to the Energy Information Administration. And whether you\u2019re a die-hard Democrat or red-blooded Republican or somewhere in between, everyone pays directly or indirectly for that hike.<\/p><p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=3108\">Former Stars and Stripes Journalists Sue Pete Hegseth After Firings<\/a><\/p><p>Historically, this would be awful news for the White House occupant. Political scientists seem to agree that, unlike some trends that preoccupy pundits, gas prices really do move the needle on presidential approval.<\/p>\n<p>Gasoline is a substantial part of the typical family\u2019s budget, of course, but its real influence may lie in its simplicity. As Northwestern University\u2019s Laurel Harbridge-Yong said on <span><u>Matt Grossmann\u2019s \u201cThe Science of Politics\u201d podcast<\/u><\/span>, you drive by gas stations with enormous price signs all the time. If you have a gas-powered car, you fill up regularly, so you have a common point of comparison. And, unlike with groceries where the long receipt obfuscates individual changes, you watch your wallet empty as your car fills up.<\/p><div>\n<div><iframe aria-label=\"Line chart\" data-external=\"1\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"423\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-B8v0g\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/B8v0g\/3\/\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" title=\"Pump Prices Up 40% Since Iran Conflict Began\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<section>\n<div>\n<h2>\n<span>Trending<\/span>\n<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-medium_large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"President Joe Biden smiles as he stands with Utah Gov. Spencer Cox\" class=\"wp-image-3090\" height=\"512\" src=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/709f51011f3e86d89469147281eba5a2-768x512.jpg\" width=\"768\" srcset=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/709f51011f3e86d89469147281eba5a2-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/709f51011f3e86d89469147281eba5a2-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/709f51011f3e86d89469147281eba5a2.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><h3>\n<span>\n                      GOP Governor Says Biden Considered Pardoning Trump in 2023\n                    <\/span>\n<\/h3><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-medium_large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Ashley.Hinson\" class=\"wp-image-3079\" height=\"578\" src=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/2e380c2a7ecc32069d740312e9105128-768x578.jpeg\" width=\"768\" srcset=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/2e380c2a7ecc32069d740312e9105128-768x578.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/2e380c2a7ecc32069d740312e9105128-300x226.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/2e380c2a7ecc32069d740312e9105128.jpeg 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><h3>\n<span>\n                      Rep. Ashley Hinson\u2019s Husband \u2018Arranged\u2019 a Meeting Between Lobbyists and Iowa Lawmakers \u2014 Including His Wife\n                    <\/span>\n<\/h3><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-medium_large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"US Department of the Treasury\" class=\"wp-image-2969\" height=\"512\" src=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/48ba3e51a27a513915112940936f59ad-768x512.jpg\" width=\"768\" srcset=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/48ba3e51a27a513915112940936f59ad-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/48ba3e51a27a513915112940936f59ad-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/48ba3e51a27a513915112940936f59ad.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><h3>\n<span>\n                      Billionaire\u2019s WSJ Op-Ed Criticizing Bessent Was Written With AI\n                    <\/span>\n<\/h3><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-medium_large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth\" class=\"wp-image-3111\" height=\"512\" src=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/468e59651fe238ecd5004453c6201a13-768x512.jpg\" width=\"768\" srcset=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/468e59651fe238ecd5004453c6201a13-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/468e59651fe238ecd5004453c6201a13-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/468e59651fe238ecd5004453c6201a13.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><h3>\n<span>\n                      Former Stars and Stripes Journalists Sue Pete Hegseth After Firings\n                    <\/span>\n<\/h3><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p>In a <span><u>2016 book chapter<\/u><\/span>, an all-star team of Harbridge-Yong and co-authors Jon Krosnick of Stanford University and Jeffrey Wooldridge of Michigan State University assembled three decades of presidential approval ratings, compared them to gas-price data, and found that every 10-cent rise in gas prices led to as much as a 0.6 percentage-point drop in the president\u2019s approval rating. That held true even after controlling for food-and-beverage inflation, unemployment and presidential scandals. Simply put, voter sentiment often follows the gas gauge.<\/p><p>In the years since, <span>other scholars<\/span> havefound <span>similar trends<\/span>. <span>American Politics Research analysis<\/span> shows that people living in places with longer car commutes are more likely to punish the president\u2019s party for rising gas prices.<\/p><p>In an apparent effort to blunt this poll penalty in the upcoming midterms, President Donald Trump has often tried to justify the higher prices.<\/p><p>\u201cSo I just say this, so for you to pay a tiny little bit more for your gasoline,\u201d he told the crowd at an <span><u>event<\/u><\/span> this month on Long Island, \u201cjust remember, you\u2019re doing it so that a very evil country cannot have \u2026 a nuclear weapon. So remember that, when you have to pay a little bit more.\u201d<\/p><p>And support for the president does seem to cloud our views on the price surge. A recent <span><u>YouGov poll<\/u><\/span> found 32% of Republicans said gas prices were going up a lot, compared with 60% of Democrats.<\/p><div>\n<div><iframe aria-label=\"Stacked Bars\" data-external=\"1\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"227\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-GkJpk\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/GkJpk\/3\/\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" title=\"Partisanship Colors How You See Gas Prices\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>In reality, since the war began in February, pump prices have leapt more than a dollar in both the reddest and bluest counties, with little variation based on politics, according to data from AAA and OPIS, the oil-price geniuses at Dow Jones. (The exception is Indiana, which now has the lowest gas prices in the nation after Republican Gov. Mike Braun <span><u>suspended the state\u2019s gas tax<\/u><\/span> of about 60 cents a gallon.)<\/p><p>But, as our colleague Thomas Burr pointed out, it\u2019s not just the change in price that determines how much gas prices hit your wallet. It\u2019s how much you drive.<\/p><p>Seen through that lens, the initial results look pretty simple: The pain falls more heavily on Trump\u2019s base. About 87% of workers in the Trumpiest fifth of the country commute by car, according to our analysis of the American Community Survey. That\u2019s almost 40% more than the fifth of the country that went most heavily for Kamala Harris in 2024.<\/p><p>We can blame much of the gap on the urban-rural divide. Rural regions that went for Harris tend to drive a fair bit as well, but they\u2019re rarer than rural red counties.<\/p><p>But gas prices can vary by well over a dollar per gallon depending on where you live, so isn\u2019t it possible that, while Democrats tend to live in areas where people drive less, they also pay more per gallon?<\/p><p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=3106\">Wyoming Governor Asks State Attorney General to Investigate DOJ Election Observers<\/a><\/p><div>\n<div><iframe aria-label=\"Choropleth map\" data-external=\"1\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"485\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-7MCoZ\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/7MCoZ\/6\/\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" title=\"Gasoline's Cheaper in the South\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div><p>Yes! We estimate Americans living in the bluest fifth of the country pay almost 20% more per gallon, extrapolating from data from <span><u>AAA<\/u><\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>So, that raises the ultimate question: Does the higher price in Democratic-leaning counties offset the fact that they tend to drive less?<\/p><p>It\u2019s tricky to account for the actual miles driven in each county. The best source might be <span><u>2017 data<\/u><\/span> from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, which \u2014 while stale \u2014 tends to agree with more recent (albeit spottier) data from other sources.<\/p><p>If we use that data to account for the miles driven by households in each county, combined with <span><u>spending data<\/u><\/span> from the Energy Information Administration, we find that households in the reddest fifth of America still spend about 30% more on gasoline in a typical year than their friends in the bluest areas.<\/p><p>And if you look at it as a share of income \u2014 to account for the fact that city jobs tend to pay more \u2014 households in the reddest areas shell out about twice as much of their paychecks as their bluest buddies.<\/p><div>\n<div><iframe aria-label=\"Column Chart\" data-external=\"1\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"515\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-TJq58\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/TJq58\/5\/\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" title=\"Relative to Income, Who Pays Most for Gas\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div><p>That may be part of why even Republicans seem to be souring on the Trump economy.<\/p><p>\u201cRepublicans saw a pretty big decrease in sentiment this month,\u201d said Joanne Hsu, director of the widely watched <span><u>University of Michigan Survey of Consumers<\/u><\/span>. \u201cIt\u2019s the lowest we\u2019ve seen since the start of this administration.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>When respondents are asked to explain their answers, she said, everybody is far more likely to point to gas prices these days, but Republicans remain a bit less likely to cite them specifically. It\u2019s an echo of the YouGov poll above \u2014 Republicans don\u2019t see gas prices rising as fast, even though they\u2019re hit hardest at the pump.<\/p><p>But is it just partisan wishful thinking?<\/p><p>Hsu had another explanation. Later in their survey, they ask where folks expect gas prices to go in the next year. Democrats and independents both thought they\u2019d keep on climbing, while Republicans were the only group that expected gas to get cheaper.<\/p><div>\n<div><iframe aria-label=\"Bar Chart\" data-external=\"1\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"495\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-Ivjnd\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/Ivjnd\/7\/\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" title=\"On Gas Prices, Only One Group Shows Optimism\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div><p>\u201cRepublicans are still giving the president a little latitude on that,\u201d Hsu said, \u201cbecause there\u2019s a belief that as soon as the war is over, gas prices are going to come down.\u201d<\/p><p>\u201cIf you think it\u2019s just a short-term pinch, you might have a higher tolerance for it,\u201d she added. \u201cYou can stomach it because you don\u2019t think it\u2019s going to last.\u201d<\/p><p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=3104\">DCA Warned About Communications Issues with Marine One Before August Safety Incident<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We crunched the numbers: Pain at the pump is sharper on one side of the political spectrum.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3109,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3112","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Gas Prices Are High. Trump\u2019s Supporters Are Feeling The Most Pain. - Modern Home Journals<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=3112\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Gas Prices Are High. 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Trump\u2019s Supporters Are Feeling The Most Pain. - Modern Home Journals","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=3112#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=3112#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/1d9a847462822288e911100d25b322e6-scaled.jpg","datePublished":"2026-08-28T09:09:45+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/#\/schema\/person\/533de239efc09a2ab59959cc1bff86d0"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=3112#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=3112"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=3112#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/1d9a847462822288e911100d25b322e6-scaled.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/1d9a847462822288e911100d25b322e6-scaled.jpg","width":2560,"height":1707,"caption":"Gas prices are displayed on a sign at an Exxon station on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C. on July 8, 2026. 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