{"id":3434,"date":"2026-09-03T09:08:47","date_gmt":"2026-09-03T09:08:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=3434"},"modified":"2026-09-03T09:08:47","modified_gmt":"2026-09-03T09:08:47","slug":"kalshis-clout-in-washington-grows-as-new-regulatory-efforts-languish","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=3434","title":{"rendered":"Kalshi\u2019s Clout in Washington Grows as New Regulatory Efforts Languish"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Kalshi\u2019s profit margins depend on keeping Washington on its good side. It\u2019s spending big in D.C. to make that happen as the prediction market company manages regulatory threats, potential legislative action and public relations challenges.<\/p><p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=3432\">Federal Judge Blocks Trump\u2019s Latest Effort to Restrict Birthright Citizenship<\/a><\/p><p>Kalshi now has over two-dozen <span><u>federal lobbyists<\/u><\/span> working on its behalf. Almost all of them have congressional bona fides, including a pair of one-time legislative directors under Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and a handful of former chiefs of staff and senior counsels to other lawmakers.<\/p>\n<p>Former Sen. Blanche Lincoln herself is on Kalshi\u2019s influence team. And the company recently brought on Tony Hanagan, a well-liked and well-connected longtime Republican cloakroom staffer, as its head of congressional affairs.<\/p><p>Kalshi, which currently lets prognosticators in every state put money on the odds of the outcomes of all sorts of future events, including politics, even hired a former communications director for Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Oregon) \u2014 an arch-critic of prediction markets \u2014 to lobby government officials.<\/p>\n<section>\n<div>\n<h2>\n<span>Trending<\/span>\n<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-medium_large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Immigration Enforcement Minnesota\" class=\"wp-image-2520\" height=\"512\" src=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/5eb1b56ac98d75c25d720e6b984146e4-768x512.jpg\" width=\"768\" srcset=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/5eb1b56ac98d75c25d720e6b984146e4-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/5eb1b56ac98d75c25d720e6b984146e4-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/5eb1b56ac98d75c25d720e6b984146e4.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><h3>\n<span>\n                      DOJ Says States That Fail to Report Undocumented Immigrants Could Lose Federal Funding\n                    <\/span>\n<\/h3><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-medium_large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Burgum\" class=\"wp-image-3118\" height=\"506\" src=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/d7b533497f5a2b88073ac38e5e25d585-768x506.jpg\" width=\"768\" srcset=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/d7b533497f5a2b88073ac38e5e25d585-768x506.jpg 768w, https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/d7b533497f5a2b88073ac38e5e25d585-300x198.jpg 300w, https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/d7b533497f5a2b88073ac38e5e25d585.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><h3>\n<span>\n                      Trump Is Quietly Working to Give Part of Yosemite to a Private Developer\n                    <\/span>\n<\/h3><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-medium_large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"President Donald Trump and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth salute as a U.S. Army carry team moves a transfer case containing the remains of a U.S. soldier at Dover Air Force Base.\" class=\"wp-image-3385\" height=\"512\" src=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/543ac7b8f7bf9d6028d646b842db886b-768x512.jpg\" width=\"768\" srcset=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/543ac7b8f7bf9d6028d646b842db886b-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/543ac7b8f7bf9d6028d646b842db886b-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/543ac7b8f7bf9d6028d646b842db886b.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><h3>\n<span>\n                      Air Force Probing Iran War Widow\u2019s \u2018Missing\u2019 Benefits\n                    <\/span>\n<\/h3><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-medium_large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Mike Johnson House GOP 9\/1\/26\" class=\"wp-image-3355\" height=\"512\" src=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/21996ddce58cd0a42cdd5f90acf8f287-768x512.jpg\" width=\"768\" srcset=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/21996ddce58cd0a42cdd5f90acf8f287-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/21996ddce58cd0a42cdd5f90acf8f287-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/21996ddce58cd0a42cdd5f90acf8f287.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><h3>\n<span>\n<u>Dana Milbank:<\/u> The Only Thing Mike Johnson\u2019s House Is Good at Doing Is Wrongdoing\n                    <\/span>\n<\/h3><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u201cKalshi is leading the push for bipartisan legislation that protects consumers, keeps minors off our platform, and makes insider trading bans standard across the industry,\u201d John Bivona, Kalshi\u2019s head of federal government relations, told NOTUS in a statement. \u201cWe\u2019ve worked with dozens of lawmakers from both parties on these priorities, and we welcome partnering with anyone serious about responsible regulation.\u201d<\/p><p>It\u2019s message the company has worked to spread across D.C., often by plastering it across the district\u2019s buildings and Metro stops.<\/p><div>\n<\/div><div>\n<\/div><p>Lawmakers of both parties and chambers have together introduced more than two-dozen bills this year alone that aim to put guardrails on prediction markets.<\/p><p>But while senators have <span><u>barred<\/u><\/span> themselves from prediction market trading, and the House has banned trades over congressional Wi-Fi, neither chamber has passed any meaningful legislation curtailing what kind of bets prediction markets may offer or who can use the markets.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe challenge going forward is \u2026 organizations like this make massive amounts of money,\u201d Merkley told NOTUS. \u201cBillions of dollars have flowed through this expansive casino. They\u2019re going to spend massive sums on lobbyists and media campaigns and so forth to try to make sure it doesn\u2019t get shut down. And they have the support of the president.\u201d<\/p><p>Kalshi has expressed support for one congressional bill \u2014 the Prediction Market Act of 2026 \u2014 that would bar the president and members of Congress from placing trades. It\u2019s also blessed Rep. Josh Gottheimer\u2019s <span><u>bill<\/u><\/span> to keep children off prediction market platforms.<\/p><p>\u201cI give Kalshi credit for supporting the legislation instead of ducking the issue,\u201d Gottheimer, a Democrat from New Jersey, said in a statement.<\/p><p>But even these bills supported by Kalshi remain in limbo with fewer than four months remaining in the current Congress.<\/p><p>Event contracts \u2014 a bet on the real-world outcome of an upcoming occurrence \u2014 have long had <span><u>real-world uses<\/u><\/span>, such as when farmers use them as a hedge to minimize potential losses.<\/p><p>But in just a few short years, prediction market sites such as Kalshi and Polymarket, a <span><u>rival<\/u><\/span> platform that largely operates overseas, have made <span><u>betting<\/u><\/span> a frictionless experience for any American with an internet connection. Some lawmakers of both parties view this as a loophole to allow for national online gambling.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThat\u2019s all it is,\u201d said Rep. Blake Moore, a Republican from Utah, a state whose constitution outlaws gambling and whose governor is <span><u>fighting to bar<\/u><\/span> companies like Kalshi from operating within its borders. \u201cThey have manipulated the concept of what a prediction market was, what it was intended for as a financial tool for centuries, and they have made this into very quick, simple, easy online gambling, mostly sports online gambling.\u201d<\/p><p>Kalshi has long maintained the swaps it offers are legally distinct from gambling.<\/p><p>\u201cIt\u2019s flat-out wrong to say that Kalshi is \u2018indistinguishable from traditional sports betting,\u2019\u201d the company has <span><u>said<\/u><\/span>. \u201cIt\u2019s unprecedented and overly aggressive for states to try to shut down a federally licensed exchange. It\u2019s like if North Carolina wanted to shut down the stock market.\u201d<\/p><p>Many in Congress aren\u2019t buying it.<\/p><p>\u201cThey\u2019re creating opportunities for people to bet on an event that people don\u2019t know the outcome to,\u201d Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio) said. \u201cThat\u2019s gambling, isn\u2019t it?\u201d<\/p><p>The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit in San Francisco took that same view last week when it ruled that the <span><u>states can regulate<\/u><\/span> prediction market platforms as a form of gambling. The ruling contradicted the 3rd Circuit Court of Appeals\u2019 prior finding in favor of Kalshi\u2019s view.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cFortunately, they are losing in their lawsuits to stop states from reining them in or shutting them down,\u201d said Democrat Sen. Richard Blumenthal. His state, Connecticut, is one of 20 that have sued to regulate prediction markets. The Supreme Court is likely to decide their ultimate success or failure.<\/p><p>Blumenthal and Sen. Katie Britt (R-Alabama) introduced a bill to bar social media sites from advertising prediction markets to minors, one of several bills in the space that have garnered some support across party lines.<\/p><p>\u201cRegardless of how you feel about prediction markets, it\u2019s clear that underage use of these prediction markets can pose the same risk as underage gambling,\u201d Britt said. \u201cIt\u2019s now time for us to tell the social media companies and to tell bad actors in the gaming space and those that are intentionally targeting underage individuals that they\u2019re off limits.\u201d<\/p><div>\n<\/div><p>Kalshi\u2019s slogan is \u201cTrade on anything,\u201d whether that be the winner of this season of \u201cAmerica\u2019s Got Talent\u201d or the timing of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal. Wagering on anything has proven to be lucrative. Kalshi was valued at $22 billion in a March fundraising round and has partnered with <span><u>major sports<\/u><\/span> teams and media companies.<\/p><p>A bill introduced in the House by Moore would disallow platforms from offering \u201cevent contracts based on those really troublesome areas, from terrorism to assassinations, war, gaming, illegal activity.\u201d<\/p><p>\u201cBetting on who wins the opening coin toss of a football game is one thing, and it\u2019s stupid,\u201d Moore said. \u201cBut when we\u2019re betting on these types of things, about the scope of a wildfire, we should pause as a society.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Kalshi was not one of the multiple platforms that offered bets related to the Palisades fires in 2025. (The platform does host a <span><u>subpage<\/u><\/span> where users can place bets on the timing and intensity of various natural disasters.)<\/p><p>For some lawmakers, the fires marked their first experience with prediction markets \u2014 one that angered them. Further <span><u>reports<\/u><\/span> of political candidates\u2019 insider trading have only <span><u>deepened<\/u><\/span> their animosity toward the platforms.<\/p><p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=3428\">Trump\u2019s Great American Road Trip<\/a><\/p><p>Other lawmakers have taken a different tack, seeking to limit who can participate in prediction markets.<\/p><p>Democratic Reps. Nikki Budzinski of Illinois and Eugene Vindman of Virginia separately introduced bills to keep certain federal officials, such as lawmakers and members of the military, from making trades.<\/p><div>\n<\/div><p>\u201cIt\u2019s very narrowly focused,\u201d Budzinski said in an interview. \u201cIt is the only bipartisan House bill that\u2019s out there right now that would basically say that if you\u2019re in public service, someone like myself that has, because of the nature of my position, information that is sensitive government information, that I shouldn\u2019t be monetizing that through the prediction market space.\u201d<\/p><p>Others are gunning for the industry\u2019s throat, casting prediction markets\u2019 very existence as an existential threat to Democracy.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhen the American people go to vote, we all are in effect inhabiting a public office,\u201d Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Maryland) said. \u201cSo we don\u2019t want people betting on elections and then selling their votes or renting their votes for the purposes of winning their bet.\u201d<\/p><p>Raskin\u2019s bill would prevent trading on elections, \u201cgovernment actions,\u201d pending court decisions and sports \u2014 effectively eliminating the vast majority of markets offered by Kalshi and no doubt cratering its multibillion-dollar valuation. Merkley introduced the bill\u2019s Senate counterpart.<\/p><p>\u201cBetting on public elections, betting on the outcome of legislation and betting on the outcome of judicial decisions would all fundamentally undermine and ultimately destroy the integrity of constitutional government,\u201d Raskin continued.<\/p><p>Kalshi is quick to remind that it\u2019s regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which, under President Donald Trump, bills itself as the sole entity with authority over prediction markets. It\u2019s gone so far as to sue some of the states that have <span><u>tried to impose<\/u><\/span> their own regulations.<\/p><p>Trump\u2019s son, Donald Trump Jr., has worked as a paid adviser to Kalshi and is an investor in Polymarket, which received prime placement on the railing of the UFC ring constructed on the White House lawn \u2014 even as the White House has <span><u>taken steps<\/u><\/span> to prohibit trades on internal White House networks.<\/p><div>\n<\/div><p>Polymarket employs three lobbyists, per the company\u2019s most recent federal disclosures. They include David Urban, who advised all three of Trump\u2019s presidential campaigns, and Keaghan Ames, a former senior policy adviser to a CFTC commissioner.<\/p>\n<p>The Coalition for Prediction Markets, a trade group launched by Kalshi, brought on former Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney as president and chief executive in January. Former Rep. Patrick McHenry, who acted as speaker pro tempore of the House after Kevin McCarthy\u2019s ouster in 2023, is a senior adviser.<\/p><p>Democrats, who hope to win control of both the House and Senate after November\u2019s midterm elections, have made an <span><u>anti-corruption agenda<\/u><\/span> a key plank of their post-midterm plans, with particular focus on placing new restrictions on the executive branch.<\/p><p>Landsman\u2019s Drain the Swamp Act folds Budzinski\u2019s PREDICT Act into a raft of \u201canti-corruption\u201d bills he hopes will be taken up should Democrats win back one or more chambers.<\/p><p>\u201cI don\u2019t have a strong opinion about whether or not it\u2019s good or bad,\u201d the congressman said of the platforms. \u201cMy big issue is the possibility of folks with insider information betting on political events, and it should be banned.\u201d<\/p><p>Landsman attributed a dearth of prediction market-related legislative action to congressional Republicans\u2019 lack of appetite for reigning in the Trump administration.<\/p><p>Blumenthal, however, argues: \u201cWhat\u2019s holding up its passage is opposition from the prediction market company.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThey are throwing their weight around in D.C., and they relish that prediction markets have become a haven for insider trading, market manipulation and underage gambling,\u201d he said. \u201cI\u2019ve seen it, heard directly in their contacts with colleagues, public statements, distorting the legislation.\u201d<\/p><p>Other lawmakers said they haven\u2019t felt any such influence by Kalshi.<\/p><p>\u201cI personally can\u2019t say that I felt any of that influence,\u201d Vindman said. \u201cI don\u2019t know, you know, like crypto, like AI, like these prediction markets; money has been flooding into politics. It\u2019s actually a real problem, and I think all of these sort of tech industries have recognized that there\u2019s a way to influence through money, and it\u2019s a real problem we got to deal with.\u201d<\/p><p>In June, Kalshi <span><u>co-founders<\/u><\/span> Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara made <span><u>maxed-out<\/u><\/span> <span><u>donations<\/u><\/span> to Vindman\u2019s primary campaign as he ran unopposed.<\/p><p>\u201cI have talked to the founders, yep,\u201d Vindman said.<\/p><p>NOTUS asked what was discussed and whether the conversation influenced his thinking.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWell, look, there are a couple of different prediction markets, and there\u2019s one that is completely offshore; there\u2019s like a subsidiary where I\u2019ve seen particular [abuses] is in that market, Polymarket,\u201d Vindman said, citing the U.S.\u2019s <span><u>indictment<\/u><\/span> of a soldier alleged to have wagered on the operation to capture Venezuela\u2019s Nicol\u00e1s Maduro.<\/p><p>\u201cWe need to, obviously, meet with these industries to understand how they operate,\u201d he added. \u201cPrediction markets are new, and so, like, there are plenty of folks that are just not aware of the size and scope of prediction markets amongst my colleagues.\u201d<\/p><p>Consider that just three years ago, Kalshi was still seeking legal clearance to operate nationwide.<\/p><p>Merkley was among those  that if the CFTC blessed a \u201clarge-scale, for-profit political event betting market in the United States,\u201d it \u201cwould profoundly undermine the sanctity and democratic value of elections.\u201d<\/p><p>Ultimately, Kalshi prevailed in court. It\u2019s since grown into a multibillion-dollar enterprise.<\/p><p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=3424\">Plane Carrying DHS Secretary Makes Emergency Landing at DCA<\/a><\/p><p>\u201cOnce they won that court case, they\u2019ve been full throttle ahead,\u201d Merkley said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Even guardrails supported by prediction market platforms are stuck in limbo.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3433,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3434","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-money"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Kalshi\u2019s Clout in Washington Grows as New Regulatory Efforts Languish - Modern Home Journals<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=3434\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Kalshi\u2019s Clout in Washington Grows as New Regulatory Efforts Languish - 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