{"id":582,"date":"2026-06-20T15:41:28","date_gmt":"2026-06-20T15:41:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=582"},"modified":"2026-06-20T15:41:28","modified_gmt":"2026-06-20T15:41:28","slug":"trumps-iran-strategy-tests-the-limits-of-the-madman-theory","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=582","title":{"rendered":"Trump’s Iran Strategy Tests the Limits of the ‘Madman Theory’"},"content":{"rendered":"
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President Donald Trump has handled his war on Iran with his signature brand of unpredictability, veering from threatening<\/u><\/span> \u201ca whole civilization will die\u201d to cheering diplomacy and Iranian freedom. It\u2019s not clear how much he\u2019ll have to show for it.<\/p>\n

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The U.S. and Iran are expected to begin talks soon toward a permanent end to the war. They have 59 days to agree on contentious issues, including Iran\u2019s nuclear program, economic sanctions and a new regional arrangement governing the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a particularly delicate period, but Trump remains deeply volatile. The negotiations will test the \u201cmadman theory\u201d of foreign policy the president leans on<\/u><\/span>: assuming adversaries will cave because they don\u2019t know how far he will go. They will also test whether U.S. officials can reach mutually agreeable terms when their boss might shift the goalposts at any time \u2014 an especially significant task given how massive the global cost of resuming conflict with Iran has become.<\/p>\n

\u201cI am old enough to remember President Nixon\u2019s \u2018madman theory,\u2019\u201d said Alan Eyre, a former U.S. career diplomat, of Nixon\u2019s handling of the Vietnam War. Trump, he said, \u201cis doing what he does because he can\u2019t do otherwise, and that\u2019s the biggest threat. He has no strategic messaging. \u2026 He\u2019s going to sabotage negotiations, not just by moving red lines, which I think he probably will do, but by saying stuff in the media that\u2019s going to have an effect.\u201d<\/p>\n

Eyre, who helped negotiate the 2015 Iran nuclear deal under then-President Barack Obama, continued: \u201cThat\u2019s one of the many reasons why I don\u2019t think that the U.S. will be able to negotiate a nuclear agreement in 60 days, 120 days or however many days.\u201d<\/p>\n

White House officials have long credited Trump\u2019s unpredictability with frightening rivals into concessions, producing good deals for Americans. Trump has threatened major escalations \u2014 including illegal<\/u><\/span> ones \u2014 against Tehran for months, seemingly in hopes of forcing compromises.<\/p>\n

A senior White House official said Trump\u2019s comments will ensure all involved know the president\u2019s red lines and thoughts concerning the ongoing negotiations. Vice President JD Vance, U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and the president\u2019s son-in-law Jared Kushner will take the lead, along with a team of technical experts ready to be deployed, the official said.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s an asset because no one will have to read between the lines,\u201d the senior official said \u2014 on the U.S. side or the Iranian side. \u201cIt gives direction to everyone.\u201d<\/p>\n

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But Trump has now embraced a framework for talks that overwhelmingly benefits Iran, and experts say the president\u2019s volatility is unlikely to tilt the discussions in the U.S.\u2019s favor.<\/p>\n

The Iranians \u201cgo into this thinking they have the upper hand,\u201d said Wendy Sherman, a top American negotiator on the Obama-era Washington-Tehran nuclear deal, which Trump later abandoned. \u201cInitially there was belief by some that the madman approach might work, but it has been shown to be toothless.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cAt the end of the day,\u201d she added, \u201cTrump has agreed to a bad deal because the war didn\u2019t turn out the way he wanted it to.\u201d<\/p>\n

Iran has learned to focus on tangible signs of Trump\u2019s preferences rather than his language, seeing his unpredictability as a strategy rather than taking it at face value, said Sina Toossi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy think tank.<\/p>\n

Toossi pointed to last weekend, when Trump criticized<\/u><\/span> Israel for bombing the Lebanese capital of Beirut after Iran said an emerging ceasefire had to cover Lebanon. Iranian decision-makers did not perceive it as a U.S.-Israeli split, but instead a test from Washington of how Iran would handle the matter, Toossi said. Iran ultimately launched major barrages against Israel and doubled down on including Lebanon in peace talks.<\/p>\n

After two U.S.-Israeli assaults in less than two years since Trump\u2019s return to office, Iran has seen that depleting stocks of U.S. weaponry \u201cdidn\u2019t move the needle for Trump,\u201d but bolstering gas prices by shutting down Hormuz did, Toossi said.<\/p>\n

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And for all of Trump\u2019s claims last week that he loved the spike in inflation due to increased energy costs, he showed his hand Wednesday in France when discussing why he moved to sign the memorandum.<\/p>\n

\u201cI didn\u2019t want to see economic catastrophe,\u201d the president said at a press conference before leaving the G7 meeting. \u201cIf you kept this going, that could have happened.\u201d<\/p>\n

Beyond the U.S.-Iran negotiators, Trump\u2019s capriciousness has competing implications for outside players.<\/p>\n

Caution about Trump \u2014 and a desire to stay in his good graces \u2014 could limit Netanyahu\u2019s efforts to scuttle U.S.-Iran talks, though he and other Israeli hard-liners dislike the idea of a compromise with Tehran.<\/p>\n

Countries like Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates also fear Washington will be too conciliatory toward Iran, but are unlikely to broadcast skepticism of the negotiations because they want to remain involved. Those nations have outsize influence through their business ties with Trump and his circle, particularly the leading negotiators Witkoff and Kushner; they could wield their sway to try to ensure any final settlement is not limited to nuclear issues.<\/p>\n

Human rights advocates are similarly hoping Trump can reshape talks in their favor. Iran\u2019s record of repression is largely ignored in the memorandum currently underpinning the talks. But if the president gives the issues new attention \u2014 for instance, by reiterating his pledge to free Americans jailed abroad \u2014 it could make Iranian gestures of good will, like releasing detained U.S. citizens, part of the diplomacy.<\/p>\n

Ryan Fayhee, an attorney representing the jailed U.S. journalist Reza Valizadeh<\/u><\/span>, told NOTUS the White House has emphasized to him that \u201cthe Iranians are well aware of the need to have these Americans released.\u201d<\/p>\n

Domestically, Trump\u2019s willingness to assail fellow Republicans who question his foreign policy choices (like soon-to-be-unseated Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky) could stem criticism of the negotiations, though some GOP discontent is already bubbling up. Deploying a \u201cmadman\u201d approach toward Republicans might help the administration convince Congress to lift the many layers of legally enshrined American sanctions on Iran, and to stave off new legislation limiting U.S.-Iran engagement.<\/p>\n

Conversely, however, a former U.S. official noted \u201creal concern\u201d that Trump will, amid the talks, again be persuaded by anti-Iran voices \u2014 like the talk show host Mark Levin or the Israeli-American Republican megadonor Miriam Adelson \u2014 to abandon diplomacy with Tehran.<\/p>\n

The former official told NOTUS they doubt any further settlement can be reached, despite predictions<\/u><\/span> from some in the Trump administration of a dramatic U.S.-Iran rapprochement.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think this is it: The status quo is good enough, everyone moves on,\u201d said the former official, who requested anonymity to protect relationships. Trump might bolster tensions again, seeking a drastic change from the Iranians, \u201cbut there is no world in which more war results in a different outcome.\u201d<\/p>\n

This story was updated to clarify when the discussions to end the war are expected to begin.<\/i><\/p>\n

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Negotiating can be difficult when the president keeps changing the parameters.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":581,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-582","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-foreign-policy"],"yoast_head":"\nTrump's Iran Strategy Tests the Limits of the 'Madman Theory' - Modern Home Journals<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=582\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trump's Iran Strategy Tests the Limits of the 'Madman Theory' - Modern Home Journals\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Negotiating can be difficult when the president keeps changing the parameters.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=582\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Modern Home Journals\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-06-20T15:41:28+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/?p=582#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/?p=582\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/533de239efc09a2ab59959cc1bff86d0\"},\"headline\":\"Trump’s Iran Strategy Tests the Limits of the ‘Madman Theory’\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-06-20T15:41:28+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/?p=582\"},\"wordCount\":1238,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/?p=582#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/6cf8af524f4d8b2b817f33ce09e11ac3-scaled.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Foreign Policy\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/?p=582#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/?p=582\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/?p=582\",\"name\":\"Trump's Iran Strategy Tests the Limits of the 'Madman Theory' - Modern Home Journals\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/?p=582#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/?p=582#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/6cf8af524f4d8b2b817f33ce09e11ac3-scaled.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-06-20T15:41:28+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/533de239efc09a2ab59959cc1bff86d0\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/?p=582#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/?p=582\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/?p=582#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/6cf8af524f4d8b2b817f33ce09e11ac3-scaled.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/6cf8af524f4d8b2b817f33ce09e11ac3-scaled.jpg\",\"width\":2560,\"height\":1707,\"caption\":\"U.S. President Donald Trump gestures as he meets with India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the G7 summit, Wednesday, June 17, 2026, in Evian-les-Bains, France. 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