{"id":747,"date":"2026-06-29T14:39:24","date_gmt":"2026-06-29T14:39:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=747"},"modified":"2026-06-29T14:39:24","modified_gmt":"2026-06-29T14:39:24","slug":"inside-republicans-plan-to-win-the-midterms","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=747","title":{"rendered":"Inside Republicans\u2019 Plan to Win the Midterms"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Donald Trump won the presidency in 2024 by turning out multitudes of people who usually don\u2019t vote, in no small part because his campaign built an entire strategy<\/u><\/span> around aggressively courting their support.<\/p>\n

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Republicans, including some involved in Trump\u2019s campaign, now think they can use the same strategy to save the GOP\u2019s control of Congress.<\/p>\n

From almost the moment the 2024 campaign ended, Republicans have dedicated themselves to building a turnout operation with the sole focus of identifying, engaging and ultimately persuading \u201clow propensity\u201d voters \u2014 those who maybe cast a ballot two years ago but often skip midterm elections.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a program aimed at solving a traditional problem for parties in power during midterm elections, when their voters become more complacent and turn out in lower numbers than their opposition\u2019s. And the years of dedicated work is an overlooked reason Republicans think they have a chance to defy widespread predictions of their electoral doom.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere has never been an operation like this before,\u201d Theresa Vaccaro, political director for the National Republican Congressional Committee, told NOTUS.<\/p>\n

She, like others interviewed for this story, emphasized that the entire GOP political ecosystem \u2014 from political committees like hers to allied super PACs, the Republican National Committee and the White House itself \u2014 is working closely together to achieve the same goal.<\/p>\n

The NRCC has more than 30 so-called \u201cbattlestations\u201d in key House districts: offices available to serve as a hub of voter outreach efforts for the whole party. Vaccaro said her committee held its first meeting about the program before Trump was inaugurated and built on efforts that started in 2024.<\/p>\n

Undergirding the whole operation is a dataset of the voters Republicans are trying to target, one that party strategists say they\u2019ve spent most of this decade building and fine-tuning. That didn\u2019t exist in the failed 2018 midterms campaign, they say, when the notion of a Trump turnout voter was still new.<\/p>\n

Republicans involved in the turnout effort acknowledge that what they\u2019re trying to do won\u2019t be easy. The political environment is hostile for Republicans this year, with Trump facing a sharp drop in approval and a continued deep and widespread public discontent with the economy.<\/p>\n

But the GOP also has some novel advantages in this year\u2019s election, including a more Republican-friendly map with fewer battleground races, loads of cash, data-rich models of the voters they\u2019re targeting and new and refined outreach tactics.<\/p>\n

They also have many of the same people who propelled Trump\u2019s turnout operation, trying to adapt what they learned in that campaign to this year\u2019s midterms.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat we\u2019re doing in \u201826 is mostly a continuation and refinement of what we did in \u201824 and had a lot of success with,\u201d said Michael Ambrosini, the RNC\u2019s chief of staff. \u201cIf we can reassemble that part of the president\u2019s coalition in marginal swing House districts, you\u2019re in a great spot.\u201d<\/p>\n

Tim Saler, the chief data consultant for Trump\u2019s 2024 campaign now at Maga Inc., the well-funded Trump-aligned super PAC, added: \u201cNone of us are overconfident at all. We all respect the challenges we face and understand how difficult it is going to be to overcome history. But we know what we\u2019re doing.\u201d<\/p>\n

The effort is, at its core, an attempt to transform the coalition of voters who support Trump into one that uniformly backs Republicans across the board, even in elections when Trump isn\u2019t on the ballot. That\u2019s been a challenge for the GOP in the past, most glaringly in 2018 \u2014 an electoral blowout that saw Republicans lose the House \u2014 and in 2022 \u2014 when the GOP badly underperformed despite then-President Joe Biden\u2019s mediocre approval rating.<\/p>\n

Part of the party\u2019s issue has been the nature of the voters whom Trump has won over since 2016: a multiracial working-class coalition that was especially key to his 2024 victory. As a group, however, their participation in midterm elections historically drops off at a greater rate than voters with a higher educational level (a college-educated cohort that now disproportionately backs Democrats).<\/p>\n

Those are the voters \u2014 which Republicans interviewed by NOTUS characterized as mostly male, blue-collar and Hispanic \u2014 the party is targeting.<\/p>\n

\u201cThese dudes have two jobs,\u201d Saler said. \u201cThey\u2019re not lazy, sitting around doing nothing. They\u2019re working their asses off.\u201d<\/p>\n

Specialized efforts to boost turnout in midterm elections aren\u2019t new. In 2014, for instance, officials with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee launched what was called the \u201cBannock Street Project,\u201d<\/u><\/span> a 10-state, multimillion-dollar investment in boosting turnout for the party\u2019s Senate candidates.<\/p>\n

Four years later, during Trump\u2019s first midterm, the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with Republicans in the House, launched its own ambitious turnout operation<\/u><\/span> aimed at an array of battleground House seats, predicated on a robust field operation meant to aggressively find and turn out voters who might otherwise sit out the election.<\/p>\n

Both efforts fell short \u2014 Democrats lost the Senate majority in 2014 and Republicans lost the House in 2018, undone by difficult political environments that ultimately mattered more to the outcome.<\/p>\n

The Republicans\u2019 tools for engaging low-propensity voters this year aren\u2019t, in a broad sense, different from in recent cycles. The party is running a tailored digital ad campaign targeting those voters, will launch a robust mail program, and has spent almost the entire cycle building a voter canvassing program, led by the NRCC\u2019s battlestation program.<\/p>\n

The difference, Republicans say, is in how they plan to execute the strategy, drawing heavily on lessons learned from their prior failures and successes.<\/p>\n

\u201cNo one believes us when I say this. I feel like they\u2019re all like, \u2018You guys are blowing smoke,\u2019\u201d said one senior GOP official, granted anonymity to speak candidly. \u201cBut it truly is night and day compared to prior cycles.\u201d<\/p>\n

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Republicans involved in the effort emphasize how improved they think it is compared to what the party did in 2018, when tensions simmered between CLF and the NRCC and the party was still struggling to embrace Trump\u2019s leadership. Now, they say, there\u2019s no question who\u2019s in charge, and there\u2019s a seamless level of coordination and communication among all the committees, super PACs and the White House.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe kind of compare notes on everything, making sure that we\u2019re all seeing the world the same way. Which we do,\u201d said Joe Pileggi, CLF\u2019s political director. \u201cThere\u2019s no fragmentation in our thinking.\u201d<\/p>\n

Party strategists said they have already started to redo their door-to-door voter canvassing efforts, no longer fixating on the total number of doors but instead emphasizing longer one-on-one conversations that stand a better chance of having an impact.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn 2018, it was about quantity over quality,\u201d Vaccaro said. \u201cI would rather have a staffer out there for an hour and talk to 15 voters than you tell me you knocked on 40 doors in that hour and dropped a bunch of literature.\u201d<\/p>\n

Trump, of course, sits in the center of the party\u2019s efforts. Voters who backed the president in 2024 despite a thin voting history are at the center of the GOP\u2019s turnout efforts now. And Republicans say their candidates are prepared to align themselves closely with Trump, no matter what district or state they\u2019re running in.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn the first Trump admin, to be very frank, the other committees would be very comfortable telling people, \u2018Run away from the president,\u2019\u201d said the senior GOP official. \u201cEveryone\u2019s bought in this time around. It\u2019s just completely different.\u201d<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s ability to motivate voters at the same level he did in 2024 is an open question. He\u2019s not on the ballot, for one, and in recent months he\u2019s shown a rising disdain<\/u><\/span> for some congressional Republicans, threatening the party\u2019s unity.<\/p>\n

Embracing him unapologetically also risks alienating some moderate voters, especially if his approval rating remains stuck in the 30s by November. And maybe most alarmingly for Republicans, he might not have the same appeal to some of his old supporters, given that many of them backed him for economic reasons but remain anxious about the state of their finances a year and a half into his term.<\/p>\n

In 2024, for instance, the Nevada Republican Party targeted low-propensity voters<\/u><\/span> with a mailer blaming Kamala Harris for high gas prices and vowing that Trump would bring them down. But gas prices spiked after the Iran war and could remain elevated through to November.<\/p>\n

Republican strategists said the party\u2019s candidates will need to aggressively make an economic case to voters if they want them to turn out, something the party hasn\u2019t always done since 2024.<\/p>\n

Saler, in fact, singled out 2025 ads from Virginia gubernatorial nominee Winsome Earle-Sears that focused on transgender issues<\/u><\/span> as what not<\/i> to do, saying they did little to address voters\u2019 top concerns. He said he and others involved in Trump\u2019s campaign plan to make that clear to all Republican candidates in 2026.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe can\u2019t just skip to step 9 or 10 and say there\u2019s an election, go vote,\u201d he said. \u201cThat\u2019s not how this works. We have to earn their vote.\u201d<\/p>\n

Democrats, for their part, have started their own earliest-ever voter contact program, helping train and connect volunteers with battleground campaigns. Their voters are also more motivated to turn out, according to most polls<\/u><\/span> of the midterm election.<\/p>\n

Some Democrats dismiss the GOP\u2019s efforts as an overhyped non-factor that can\u2019t overcome the party\u2019s unpopularity, including over Republican-led cuts to health care and Trump\u2019s tariffs.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe GOP\u2019s ground game is a consulting revenue stream dressed up as a turnout program,\u201d said Yasmin Radjy, executive director of the liberal group Swing Left, which is helping Democrats<\/u><\/span> with their own turnout efforts this year.<\/p>\n

Republicans concede that even a well-run turnout operation can, at best, affect races at the margins. But they say they\u2019ve seen evidence of it working already, including in a special election<\/u><\/span> in Tennessee last year where party operatives believe they were able to boost turnout late.<\/p>\n

Some Republicans also point to a surprisingly close vote in the Virginia redistricting referendum this year as evidence of the potency of their turnout operations. And others say their internal data indicates that ongoing efforts to engage with the Hispanic community, which swung toward Trump in 2024, continues to pay dividends.<\/p>\n

An internal poll from CLF of a dozen Hispanic-heavy House districts, for instance, found Democrats only slightly ahead on the generic ballot, 47% to 45%.<\/p>\n

\u201cPeople believing that Hispanic voters, especially in Texas and in Florida and others, have left the president, that\u2019s just not true,\u201d Pileggi said.<\/p>\n

Other public surveys show Republicans in a weaker position<\/u><\/span> with Latino voters. <\/b><\/p>\n

But Republicans think that in an election in which they are brimming with cash<\/u><\/span>, on a battleground map that has shrunk in size amid a gradual decline in swing seats, they can channel their efforts like never before.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re talking about a much smaller map than we\u2019ve ever had, and that gives us a smaller universe of people, which gives us more time to talk to them,\u201d Vaccaro said.<\/p>\n

Said Saler: \u201cWe\u2019re not silly enough to think we control the universe. But we do think we can make a real difference in the races we care about.\u201d<\/p>\n

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The party has spent years plotting turning out Trump voters. \u201cThere has never been an operation like this before,\u201d said the NRCC\u2019s political director.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":746,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-747","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-2026-election"],"yoast_head":"\nInside Republicans\u2019 Plan to Win the Midterms - Modern Home Journals<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=747\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Inside Republicans\u2019 Plan to Win the Midterms - Modern Home Journals\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The party has spent years plotting turning out Trump voters. \u201cThere has never been an operation like this before,\u201d said the NRCC\u2019s political director.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=747\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Modern Home Journals\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-06-29T14:39:24+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"10 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/?p=747#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/?p=747\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/533de239efc09a2ab59959cc1bff86d0\"},\"headline\":\"Inside Republicans\u2019 Plan to Win the Midterms\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-06-29T14:39:24+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/?p=747\"},\"wordCount\":1918,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/?p=747#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/577087ff7678d738ed28f1364b19e9f4-scaled.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"2026 Election\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/?p=747#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/?p=747\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/?p=747\",\"name\":\"Inside Republicans\u2019 Plan to Win the Midterms - Modern Home Journals\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/?p=747#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/?p=747#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/577087ff7678d738ed28f1364b19e9f4-scaled.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-06-29T14:39:24+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/533de239efc09a2ab59959cc1bff86d0\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/?p=747#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/?p=747\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/?p=747#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/577087ff7678d738ed28f1364b19e9f4-scaled.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/modernhomejournals.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/577087ff7678d738ed28f1364b19e9f4-scaled.jpg\",\"width\":2560,\"height\":1707,\"caption\":\"President Donald Trump walks on stage before speaking at a Mack Trucks facility Tuesday, June 23, 2026, in Macungie, Pa. 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