{"id":844,"date":"2026-07-02T09:19:32","date_gmt":"2026-07-02T09:19:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=844"},"modified":"2026-07-02T09:19:32","modified_gmt":"2026-07-02T09:19:32","slug":"which-college-majors-have-the-best-and-worst-career-paths","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=844","title":{"rendered":"Which College Majors Have the Best (and Worst) Career Paths?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<div>\n<p><i>Welcome to the NOTUS data column brought you by local data nerd Andrew Van Dam. In each column, Andrew will dive into a new data mystery and haul you along for the ride.<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=842\">Prosecutors to Review More Than 1,000 Cases After Broadview Six Debacle<\/a><\/p>\n<p><i>We\u2019re open for business: <\/i><span><i><u>Send in your queries now<\/u><\/i><\/span><i>!<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Congratulations, new college graduates! We hope you are enjoying your summer. Our extensive data analysis shows the most common job for all of you will be \u2026 unemployment.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><iframe aria-label=\"Small multiple line chart\" data-external=\"1\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"801\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-bCHf8\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/bCHf8\/4\/\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" title=\"For Young Grads, the Job Market Keeps Shifting\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>But don\u2019t panic yet. That\u2019s always been true. It takes time to spin a thin r\u00e9sum\u00e9 into a job offer.<\/p>\n<p>And while we\u2019re deluged with dire stories about the new-grad job market, the scariest predictions haven\u2019t shown up in the data. <span><u>Youth unemployment<\/u><\/span> has fallen from its late-2025 highs, and the employment rate for young college graduates remains consistently higher than that of their degree-free friends.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><iframe aria-label=\"Line chart\" data-external=\"1\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"535\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-m5LEN\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/m5LEN\/2\/\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" title=\"College Grad Employment Remains Relatively High\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Just as importantly, completing a degree will still <span><u>bump your annual earnings by almost $13,000<\/u><\/span>, relative to peers who didn\u2019t graduate, even after taking student loans into account.<\/p>\n<p>Much of that earnings boost, though, depends on your first job. One way to boost that inaugural paycheck? Luck into a job that matches your major.<\/p>\n<p>So, we wanted to find the majors with the clearest career paths \u2014 the ones that set you up for a well-defined (and hopefully stable) job.<\/p>\n<p>To do that, we sought out the most common real-world job for each major. Our ally in this effort was one of the few surveys in human history with enough data to look at individual major-and-job combos \u2014 the Census Bureau\u2019s almighty American Community Survey. The annual survey\u2019s so immense that even when you filter it down to young folks who completed a four-year degree, it has data on almost a quarter of a million of them from 2009 to 2024.<\/p>\n<p>What does it show? Well, more than 75% of young grads with a bachelor\u2019s in nursing are already working as nurses. Elementary education, accounting, computer science and civil engineering also stand out as majors that lock you into an obvious career. Usually, that\u2019s good news \u2014 though in some cases, such as nursing and vocational training, it can mean that you start out earning more than your peers, but they pass you once your earnings plateau.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><iframe aria-label=\"Table\" data-external=\"1\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"1064\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-WkXxc\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/WkXxc\/3\/\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" title=\"Majors With the Clearest Career Path\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Mass media, philosophy, and anthropology or archaeology majors struggle with the opposite problem. Their career paths, especially for folks who stop at a four-year degree, remain so ill-defined that the most common career for a young graduate in those fields often involves retail work.<\/p>\n<p>The major that looks bleakest, though, might also inspire the most hope. Fewer than 4% of drama majors will work as actors as their primary job by age 24. Young folks who studied drama are about three times more likely to be waiting tables \u2014 their most common primary job \u2014 or working in retail.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><iframe aria-label=\"Table\" data-external=\"1\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"1076\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-Hst1w\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/Hst1w\/3\/\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" title=\"Jobs that Draw the Most From a Single Major\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>But! Of those who did become working actors in their early 20s, almost half (46%) have drama degrees. So, studying drama really does give you the best shot at an acting career \u2014 you just have to accept that it gives you an even better shot at working in the hospitality industry.<\/p>\n<p>Career certainty comes with a few bonuses. Majors that clearly lead to a specific job tend to lead to bigger paychecks \u2014 especially relative to other work you\u2019d be doing in your early 20s \u2014 and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n<p>Those correlations do suffer from an obvious confound: The kids who choose the highest-value majors don\u2019t always resemble those who don\u2019t. They may harbor more ambition and focus more on future earnings, of course, but they also might have family backgrounds or other advantages to ease their path.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><iframe aria-label=\"Scatter Plot\" data-external=\"1\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"686\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-q6KfC\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/q6KfC\/3\/\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" title=\"Majors with Clearer Career Paths Tend to Earn More\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>To cut through those confounds, you\u2019d need data that followed individuals through college and well into the workforce.<\/p>\n<p>Luckily for everybody involved, such data \u2014 once rare \u2014 is becoming commonplace. <span><u>Grants from the National Center for Education Statistics<\/u><\/span> have helped states fund datasets that link students\u2019 college data to their performance in the workforce (with extensive privacy protections).<\/p>\n<p>Using data like that enabled by those grants, researchers can pry apart correlation and causation \u2014 and they seem to back up what we found in the public federal data.<\/p>\n<p>For starters, the stakes of your first job really are that high. In a recent <span><u>working paper<\/u><\/span>, economists Veronica Minaya, Judith Scott-Clayton, C.J. Libassi and Joshua Thomas from Teachers College, Columbia University followed 80,000 bachelor\u2019s grads in a major urban public-university system into the workforce. They found that, all else being equal, every extra $1,000 you get from your first real job (that is, one that lasts at least nine months) is associated with an additional $700 advantage five years after graduation.<\/p>\n<p>And a good job fit can make or break that first paycheck. Lauren Russell of the University of Pennsylvania and Taylor Odle of the University of Wisconsin-Madison followed about 115,000 Tennessee bachelor\u2019s grads from the 2010s into the workforce and found that, all else being equal, folks who moved into an industry that fit their field of study got a raise of 5% to 10%, above and beyond the <span><u>boost<\/u><\/span> you\u2019d get from moving into an unrelated industry. (Their work <span><u>will soon be published<\/u><\/span> in the journal Education Finance and Policy.)<\/p>\n<p>Another piece of evidence: An <span><u>analysis<\/u><\/span> of almost half a million public-university students in Texas from the classes of 1996 to 2002 and earnings data looked at how much certain majors lifted their salary in the first two decades after graduation, all else being equal. The income trends found in the analysis bore a reassuring resemblance to ours, even after controlling for high school and college characteristics, students\u2019 high school test scores, and demographics such as race and gender.<\/p>\n<p>Degrees in engineering, business and IT, which tend to have clearer career paths, often lead to students earning tens of thousands of dollars more a year than their otherwise equivalent peers who studied the (noneconomic) social sciences or liberal arts. (The research, by Rodney Andrews \u2014 a University of Texas at Dallas economist who died suddenly while the research was in progress \u2014 Scott Imberman of Michigan State University, Michael Lovenheim of Cornell University and Kevin Stange of the University of Michigan, will soon be <span><u>published<\/u><\/span> in the Review of Economics and Statistics.)<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><iframe aria-label=\"Dot Plot\" data-external=\"1\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"418\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-2zLjv\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/2zLjv\/4\/\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" title=\"Some Majors Pay Way More, Even After Accounting for Differences in Student Demographics and Academics\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Another <span><u>paper<\/u><\/span> using similar Texas data by the same team of scholars, along with Michigan State\u2019s Patrick Massey, found that white and, to a lesser extent, Asian men tended to see higher boosts from their major than their otherwise similar female or Black and Hispanic peers.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=840\">Meet the Highest-Paid White House Staffers<\/a><\/p>\n<p>But worry nipped at our heels. Were our data still relevant, given our most recent observations come from 2024, and the economy seems to be evolving with alacrity?<\/p>\n<p>Laura Ullrich should know. She directs research at the Indeed Hiring Lab, which uses activity on America\u2019s dominant job-search site to track the labor market on a moment-to-moment basis.<\/p>\n<p>When we called, Ullrich helped us understand that in the past few years, something seems to have shifted deep within the new-grad job market. In a <span><u>recent analysis<\/u><\/span> with her colleague Arcenis Rojas, Ullrich found that the share of four-year college graduates who made (or updated) an Indeed profile soared 67% from 2023 to 2025.<\/p>\n<p>Why do we care about young folks\u2019 job-search proclivities? Because, traditionally, Indeed wasn\u2019t always the first destination for students who already knew what their inaugural job journey would look like. Aspiring engineers, scientists and software developers relied on pipelines built up over decades: scaffolds of internships, on-campus recruiting programs and interpersonal relationships that helped match skilled grads with the jobs that needed those skills.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><iframe aria-label=\"Line chart\" data-external=\"1\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"453\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-kzqRB\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/kzqRB\/2\/\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" title=\"More Graduates Are Jumping Into the Open Job Market\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>But if those students are now venturing into the rough-and-tumble employment free-for-all that is Indeed, it signals those pipelines have sprung a leak.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOur data show that internship opportunities were lower for the most recent cohort of graduates,\u201d Ullrich told us, \u201cand the fact that more of them are coming to our platform likely indicates that the market has shifted, and new graduates are having to turn to other places to source employment.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Which, she said, could help explain why students feel the job market is so bleak, despite the relatively standard situation painted by the employment statistics.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere are blocks of college graduates that are doing quite well,\u201d she told us, particularly in careers like nursing or teaching that have a strong work-experience component and robust recent job growth. But other blocks are struggling, and they\u2019re not always the blocks you\u2019d expect.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHistorically, students majoring in computer science, students majoring in business have had some of the best outcomes,\u201d Ullrich said. \u201cThey come out, they get the highest wages, they do quite well.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI think that\u2019s why you\u2019re hearing about it so much,\u201d she told us, \u201cbecause some of the people who don\u2019t normally have a hard time? They are!\u201d<\/p>\n<p>That felt right. But why trust our gut when we\u2019ve got the Bureau of Labor Statistics\u2019 Current Population Survey \u2014 the fast-moving monthly data underlying stupendous statistics such as the unemployment rate?<\/p>\n<p>In the CPS, we looked at the one-third of jobs that traditionally had the strongest links to a single college major. For a generation, such jobs have consistently outgrown their peers. But they\u2019ve sputtered in the past three years \u2014 right around when today\u2019s grads would have been choosing their majors \u2014 with a fall that rivals the COVID-19 lockdowns as their worst run since the Great Recession.<\/p>\n<p>And the traditional strength of many of these majors \u2014 which, unlike the humanities, usually have a defined vocational path \u2014 has become their weakness. Because in times of rapid upheaval, the students who studied a narrow, practical skill will be stuck in a track to a destination that may or may not exist anymore.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI think there\u2019s real reasons to be focusing on those types of skills,\u201d said Cornell\u2019s Lovenheim, one of the researchers who helped determine how much value college majors really add \u2014 but \u201cthe downside of that is that the skills you\u2019re learning are not very adaptable, and so they\u2019re particularly prone to adverse shocks.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>What\u2019s the \u201cadverse shock\u201d this time around? A real answer would require a 35-part series spanning much of the year (if you want to see that, <span><u>let us know<\/u><\/span>!). But AI seems an obvious culprit and\/or scapegoat.<\/p>\n<p>A recent <span><u>analysis<\/u><\/span> by Census Bureau economist (and <span><u>swing-dance instructor<\/u><\/span>) Lee Tucker chronicles how, in the wake of ChatGPT\u2019s release, young folks\u2019 jobs evaporated in the industries most exposed to AI.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><iframe aria-label=\"Line chart\" data-external=\"1\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"442\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-tK9c0\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/tK9c0\/3\/\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" title=\"Industries Most Exposed to AI Have Shed Young Workers\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>But how can that be, if AI isn\u2019t advanced enough to replace even the most junior employees in most industries (yet)?<\/p>\n<p>Ullrich suggested one potential explanation: AI isn\u2019t taking grads\u2019 jobs; it\u2019s taking their paychecks. As companies rush to stay ahead of the New <span><u>New New Thing<\/u><\/span>, they\u2019re dumping so much cash into speculative AI investments that they can\u2019t afford luxuries such as newly graduated greenhorns.<\/p>\n<p>Does that mean the majors we highlighted, the ones with the clearest career path, aren\u2019t worth it anymore? Probably not!<\/p>\n<p>It just means that, as Ullrich pointed out, students in popular, high-paying majors now have to learn the fundamental skills long prized by the liberal arts: be flexible, take a few classes outside your specialization, broaden your definition of a good job fit and be willing to adapt your approach to what employers need at this particular moment.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/modernhomejournals.com\/?p=838\">Trump 2.0 Won\u2019t Renew Key Trade Deal Trump 1.0 Negotiated<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Some majors led grads onto a steady career path, while others dumped them straight into retail or food service jobs.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":843,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[39],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-844","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Which College Majors Have the Best (and Worst) Career Paths? 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